Four late-2025 signals that will shape your 2026 plan
Planning 2026 means cutting through noise. Rates are “up but moderating,” profitability is “strong but fragile,” and every carrier seems to have a slightly different story.
From an agency perspective, you really care about four things:
- Are carriers making money?
- Where is pricing actually going?
- Which lines are under pressure?
- How will that hit your renewals and your valuation?
These four fresh signals from December 2025 and January 2026 help answer that.
1. AM Best: Commercial lines is stable, not in crisis
Rating agency AM Best is keeping its outlook on the US commercial lines segment at “stable.” They point to mid-90s combined ratios through the first three quarters of 2025, strong underwriting and operating performance overall, and solid risk-adjusted capital levels across most carriers.
There are warning lights. AM Best calls out elevated casualty claims driven by social inflation, relatively high property claims costs, and geopolitical and inflation risks that can push loss costs higher. General liability, commercial auto, and D&O are specifically named as sub-segments with more negative pressure than the rest of the book.
What this means for agencies
- You are not operating in a distressed market. Carriers have room to be selective on accounts and on agency partners.
- Casualty heavy and severity prone lines will stay under tight scrutiny, even if headlines talk about a “softer” market.
- If your book leans into GL and commercial auto, you need a tight risk story and clean loss performance, not a generic “market is hard” script.
Source: Reinsurance News
2. WTW: Commercial rate hikes are cooling, line by line
reports that US commercial insurance prices were up about 3.8% year over year in Q3 2025. That is still an increase, but it is a clear step down from the 6.1% increase recorded in Q3 2024.
Under the hood, it is not one story. Workers compensation, D&O, cyber, and commercial property are now seeing price decreases in aggregate. Excess and umbrella remain the most aggressively priced lines, and commercial auto is still posting double digit price growth. Small and mid market accounts are seeing more modest increases than in past years, while large accounts remain more pressured.
What this means for agencies
- The hard market blanket is gone. You have to talk pricing by line, not “everything is up.”
- Auto and umbrella are where most of your renewal pain will live, especially for fleets and accounts with spotty loss history.
- Lines that are flattening or decreasing are a chance to fix structure and coverage. Use that room to improve deductibles, limits, and wording instead of only chasing a lower premium.
Source: WTW
3. Triple I & Milliman: 2025 is likely a high-water mark for underwriting profit
A joint outlook from Triple-I and Milliman projects that the US property and casualty industry will post its lowest net combined ratio in more than a decade for 2025.
Drivers they highlight:
- No US hurricane landfalls in 2025, despite very active storms
- Strong homeowners and personal auto performance after several rounds of corrective rate action
- Continued strength in workers’ compensation, with combined ratios in the high 80s to low 90s
The report is not rosy across the board. General liability and commercial auto are still forecast to sit above 100 on a net combined ratio basis, and they flag rising replacement costs, political risks, and a slowing economy as reasons why 2026 could be more challenging than 2025.
What this means for agencies
- 2025 looks like a very good earnings year for carriers. That is a window, not a permanent state.
- When margins are strong, the best accounts see more competition, and marginal business loses its free ride.
- This is exactly the time to tighten your book: clean up unprofitable accounts, lean into better-performing niches, and prove you are the agency that helps carriers keep combined ratios in the 90s.
Source: Triple-I
4. Ivans: renewal data confirms a firm, line-specific market
The latest Ivans Index release for Q4 2025 shows premium renewal rates up year over year for all major commercial lines except workers’ compensation. Ivans reports that quarter over quarter, average renewal rate changes increased for general liability, commercial property, and umbrella, and decreased for commercial auto, BOP, and workers comp.
Sample numbers from Q4 2025:
- Commercial auto renewal rate change averaged about 6.97%, down from 7.60% in Q3
- BOP averaged 7.52%, a slight decrease from 7.55%
- General liability averaged 7.23%, up sharply from 5.89%
- Commercial property averaged 8.01%, up from 7.64%
- Umbrella averaged about 9.49%, up from 8.99%
- Workers’ compensation averaged minus 1.61%, more negative than Q3’s minus 1.42%
What this means for agencies
- Renewal increases are still the norm, but the intensity has shifted into a few lines instead of hitting everything equally.
- Workers comp remains the pressure relief valve that can offset pain elsewhere, if you handle it strategically.
- Your renewal playbook needs to be built by line and by account, not from a generic “market is up X%” paragraph.
Source: Reinsurance News